This is a follow up on my last year’s quarterly review found here
A bit of good news came my way, so far. You remember the Nigerian edition of currency risk that happened last year where the naira, which we had been artificially keeping up, fell precipitously, due to lower oil prices. You can get a refresher in this post.
Well, this year the Swiss National Bank (SNB) gave us the opposite problem, they stopped holding down their currency artificially against the Euro, leading their francs to climb almost 30% in one day. Since they had kept their currency pegged to the Euro so long, no one saw this coming. Everyone is expecting the European Central Bank to devalue the Euro with a QE program, so most people were also expecting a corresponding decline in the Swiss Francs. Matter of fact, it was one of Goldman Sachs top trade ideas for 2015. The SNB practically screwed everyone up the arse, including, according to speculators, themselves. That’s not my major worry.
The only reason this is good news to me, is that shares of Nestle ADR that I picked up in 2013 for my Roth IRA gained around 5%. Now, I’m hanging on to this as good news because in all my other positions, 2015 so far has been terrible. The markets been going up and down like a whore’s drawls and right now,it’s a veritable Red Sea in my portfolio. So when I spied one green oasis in all that, best believe I was tickled.
I also had a bit of a quick flash of good news in oil futures when they spiked last week but I’m still hauling that along for the long term, so no much excitement there.
Everywhere else, however, I cri. I halved my Tesla at the end of the year, mostly because it was such a heavy component of my portfolio but also because I rightly foresaw stressful times ahead. What is left is still 23% up, but that’s way down from a high of 50+% at some point last year. It’s not an issue for me though because I have made over 150% overall in already taken profits, so my net cost basis for the current position is $0. And I’m in it for the long haul.
Mobileye is up just 3.5%, down from a high of around 35% last year. In other words, at least 90% of the profits I was sitting on, went poof. This is the most annoying thing because I never sold off, not even a little bit (I would have if it had gone past double my purchase amount) Major bummer. It may come back, or not. My bet is that it will but eh, it’s about as much fun as an enema.
Proshares Tech ETF ($ROM) and Pacific Sunswear ($PSUN) were among the ones I told you were dragging me down. This year, they both shot up from negatives to around 33% and 31% respectively. I just sold them today.
Zendesk is at -3% still.
GE is at -8%.
I have a few other positions scattered around. All in red. So far, I’m trailing the market. I beat the thing last year by almost 13%. I fully expect to beat it again especially since I plan to go back to active trading as soon as I build up a good reserve of “play money” by the second half of the year.
So well that’s it.
Let me know if you have any bright ideas, or if you’d like to share thoughts. Also, I’m on the hunt for educational materials in Forex. Send some my way.
My twitter: @eldivyn