I happen to think that a lot of the concern about the US economy is a bit overdone. Yes, in the short term there are challenges.
For one, the market, having enjoyed years of Low interest fueled rise is losing that steam and with the Fed raising rates, it’s inevitably going to trend lower. Earnings growth for most companies have reduced, commodity demand and prices are down, and China’s growth has faltered.
But then, there’s a huge number of millennials, about 86 million of them, slowly hitting the market. They’re getting jobs, education, getting married, having kids and buying houses. Those things have long been the mainstay of demand in the US economy and its a huge swell. Secondly, global markets are still converging at a rapid rate which means that the skilled workforce in America and the businesses they create will continue to generate exports across the rest of the world.
Thirdly, with American oil production so high, transportation and energy prices have been falling tremendously. Next to labor, energy costs was the biggest driver of offshoring, so as energy is becoming cheaper, some manufacturing is coming back stateside.
All in all, there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic about the US economy but I feel like people are too focused on short term market gyrations to really appreciate that.