Hey everyone! I want to talk about something today that a lot of new investors don’t often pay attention to even though I believe it’s essential for a long term successful investment program. This is the business cycle. Any company or business depends relies first and foremost on the economy of its country or market […]
Tag: valuation
Donald Trump Cost Bond Investors over $1 trillion (And It’s A Good Thing)
The last few weeks have cataloged the meltdown of the bond markets with rates spiking up and prices slumping as investors moved out of the safety of bonds and stocks rallied. All told, it costs investors about $1 trillion in losses on the value of their bond holdings, while institutions that make money from higher […]
Twilio’s IPO
I and a few of my friends have been scratching our heads about missing this IPO. I know the company very well, admire their business and management and had them as a definite buy if they ever IPO’d. And then I missed it and had to sit on the side lines while it soared over […]
Falling into the Earnings Trap
Outside of my options trading, most of my investing has a long term orientation. Which means I focus heavily on economic and business fundamentals. Because of this, I’ve encountered an issue that most people will eventually run into as well, when they follow a fundamental investment philosophy: the so called “earnings trap”. What is this, […]
A Model to Predict IPO Performance.
I’ve had some luck with IPOs, in the few years I’ve been investing. The two clear cases where LinkedIn, in which I doubled my investment over a weekend (bought Friday, sold Monday) and Facebook which I rightly surmised was overvalued on IPO day, but which I later bought once it fell from around $39 to […]
DCF II : Where is the Money Coming From?
I started discussing how to Discount Cash Flows, and why it’s helpful for anyone who wants to value a business, especially for investment purposes. You can read the first post here. Instead of diving into a DCF table immediately. let me give a bit more thought to the cash flow itself. Before you can discount […]
Why Consumer Goods Companies Are Great Investments
One of the easily observed truths of American capitalism and economy, is that the consumer is King. And if the consumer is King, then most of the most successful companies for investors are all in the Consumer Goods industry. An analysis of the top returning stocks in the S&P 500 in the last 25 years, […]
